Key Primary Races on Tuesday

KANSAS

Jim Ryun vs. Lynn Jenkins

2nd – Boyda (D) – Leavenworth, Pittsburg, and Topeka.

In 2004 Nancy Boyda was defeated by incumbent Jim Ryun by a 15% margin.  Two years later, in a surprise upset of the night, Nancy Boyda defeated Jim Ryun by 4% (a 19% improvement from two years previous).  In fact, Boyda was only one of two unsuccesful challengers from 2004 to win in 2006 (McNerney was the other).  The fact of Mark Foley, the infamous page scandal congressman, being his Washington neighbor, may have less to do with Ryun’s loss than what he did in the days prior to the election.  Once he realized that he was facing a closer race than 2004 he invited Bush and Cheney to fundraise with him.  At a time when both were toxic, and still are, the mere invitation to both may have convinced the electorate that Ryun was indeed too aligned with Bush and Cheney, resulting in his defeat.  Ryun now wants his job back, yet he faces a competitive primary challenger in State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins.  The primary itself mirrors an ongoing battle within the Kansas Republican Party.  Ryun is a staunch conservative and Jenkins is considered a moderate.  Republicans dominate both chambers of state government, yet many moderate Republicans have voted with Democrats on social issues strongly opposed by conservatives.  In 2006, party division not only led to Ryun’s loss, but also to that of five state house seats, and a state attorney general detested strongly by moderate Republicans.  The Ryun-Jenkins race is just one of many featuring conservative vs. moderate.  Conservative leaders in the state senate have recruited fellow conservatives to challenge what they call “liberal” Republicans who are running for re-election this year.  While Ryun is expected to win the primary due to strong conservative turnout, the primary challenge has left him with an inability to concentrate solely on Boyda.  The advantage in this Republican leaning district clearly lies with Boyda.  She has established a fairly moderate voting record, thereby allowing her to appease the moderate voters of the Republican Party.  Campaign support from a popular Democratic governor and sharing the ballot with the last Democrat to represent the district, Jim Slattery, are also strong advantages.  If Ryun wins the primary, then expect a large percentage of Jenkins supporters to shift to Boyda, providing her with sufficient support in overcoming the Republican dominance of the district.  If Jenkins wins, then expect many of Ryun’s supporters to overlook the race in its entirety.  After all, if a moderate Republican is a “liberal” in Kansas, then what would one consider a moderate Democrat?  As for any role Senator Roberts plays in this race could be interesting.  If he campaigns aggressively for Ryun, then he could alienate Republican moderates and narrowly lose his own re-election.

Rating: Leans Democrat (Ryun wins)/No Clear Favorite (Jenkins wins)

Another interesting race to watch:

Johnson County DA – Former State Attorney General/Current Johnson County DA Phil Kline vs. Steve Howe

MICHIGAN

Carolyn Cheeks-Kilpatrick vs. Mary Waters vs. Martha Scott

13th – Kilpatrick (D) – Detroit.

In most circumstances, Carolyn Cheeks-Kilpatrick would be considered safe.  However, her problem is one beyond her control: her son.  As mayor of Detroit, Kwame Kilpatrick, has been caught up in one scandal after another.  Rather than discipline or scold her son publicly, Kilpatrick has instead scolded those that have criticized her son.  Her response toward her son’s behavior or lack of appropriate response has drawn criticism, especially after Detroit taxpayers have been left paying millions following the actions of her “failed” son.  As a result of her inaction towards the matter Kilpatrick finds herself in a three-way primary.  State Representative Mary Waters, considered the most serious threat, and State Senator Martha Scott, have decided to force a primary.  Kilpatrick is taking the threat that the primary poses seriously and for good reason.  She herself was elected by defeating a fellow Democratic incumbent in a contentious primary.  The lessons of that primary are surely with Kilpatrick now.  She also has funding, unlike both of her opponents.  Unlike a primary with just one opponent, the three-way primary guarantees that votes against Kilpatrick would be split between Waters and Scott.  The later of whom is merely seen as a placement candidate meant to help Kilpatrick, rather than hurt her.  In the end there is no denying that her son is a liability, yet the nature of the primary, the lack of funding by both opponents, and Kilpatrick’s past experience versus an incumbent, makes her well prepared in surviving this challenge.

Rating: Safe Democrat  

MISSOURI

Dan Bishir vs. Blaine Luetkemeyer vs. Danie Moore vs. Brock Olivo vs. Bob Onder

Judy Baker vs. Lyndon Bode vs. Steve Gaw vs. Ken Jacob

9th – Open Seat (R) – Columbia, Kirksville, and Washington.

The decision by Kenny Hulshof to abandon his seat and run for Governor has created a contest that few could have anticipated.  Five Republicans, four Democrats, and a libertarian are all in the running to win this seat.  The two most competitive Republicans are former State Representative Blaine Luetkemeyer and State Representative Bob Onder.  The two most competitive Democrats are State Representative Judy Baker and former State House Speaker Steve Gaw.  Luetkemeyer and Onder share much in common.  They are both social issue candidates (abortion, guns, gay marriage, and illegal immigration).  Neither seem well versed (or hardly interested) in the economy.  They also have self-funded a majority of their campaign (70% for Luetkemeyer and 53% for Onder).  Realizing that Luetkemeyer’s money can prove detrimental in a crowded primary, Onder has already started attacking him (yet there is hardly any issue where they differentiate).  In the end, Onder is likely to win the primary.  The Democratic race features Baker, who is from Columbia, the major population center in the district.  Gaw hails from Moberly, a more rural area of the district.  Baker has raised almost twice as much as Gaw, yet all of his funds have been individual contributions.  Baker is appealing to liberals in Columbia, wheras Gaw is reaching out to more conservative Democrats.  Turnout will be the key in determing who wins the Democratic primary.  If Baker wins the primary she will have an uphill climb in appealing to voters outside of Boone County (Columbia).  In 2004, Bush and Kerry performed even in Boone County, yet Kerry lost every other county in the district.  In 2006, Senator McCaskill carried Boone and Pike counties, yet only carried 47% of the districtwide vote.  Half of the vote totals will come from four counties (Boone, Franklin, Saint Charles, and Warren).  Gaw has more appeal outside Boone County, since he is running as a conservative Democrat (publicly supporting oil drilling) and is a farmer, a strong asset in an agricultural district.  Interestingly, Huckabee carried a majority of the counties here, yet Romney carried two important counties (Boone and Saint Charles).  On the Democratic side, Clinton carried every count, except Boone.  McCain provides no assistance to any Republican nominee, neither does Obama for the Democrat (other than in Columbia).  Following the primary (August 5th) a better picture will show which party has the upper hand here.  Therefore, since no nominee has been selected, ratings are based on hypothetical match-ups.

Rating: Likely Republican (Onder vs. Baker)

Rating: Too Close to Call (Onder vs. Gaw)

Rating: Leans Republican (Luetkemeyer vs. Baker)

Rating: Leans Democrat (Luetkemeyer vs. Gaw)  

Another interesting race to watch:

Governor – Congressman Kenny Hulshof vs. State Treasurer Sarah Steelman